Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Price Per Square Foot 2006 thru 2009 - Hoboken from Hoboken Real Estate Monitor.com

Here is the graph everyone wants to see. How has Hoboken done in this recession compared to national rates? Taking data from Realtor.org - the National Association of Realtor site and looking at empirical data (below), we see that Q4 2008 was the low point. National dollars sales for condos were down 22% from the peak.

Notice how the large decline in price per square foot was in Q4 2008 across all unit types except for studios. There are relatively few studios in Hoboken and with 800-1025 total sales per year over the period, the number of studios is small. Given that this analysis does not take into account location in type, building amenities such as elevator, concierge, gym etc., it is not surprising that with such a low number of transactions in the data set for studios, it’s not surprising to see the price per square foot for studios vary widely. Simply put, buying a studio at Maxwell Place is going to sell at a much higher price per square foot then buying a studio in a walkup. I would say the same about 4 bedroom condos. There are few 4 bedroom condos so a 33% drop in Q4 2008 can be skewed by a small number in the data set.

What’s more interesting is looking at the 1, 2, 3 bedroom units where there is a robust number of units in the dataset. Q4 2008 is definitely the low point and below the national average in terms of market degradation by approximately 4 percentage points. That is, Hoboken faired better than the national average for condo sales thru this recession. Again not surprising.

The percent decline in Q1 2009 is smaller than Q4 2008 and turns to an increase in price per square foot by Q3 2009. Are we on our way out? What will happen once the First Time Home Buyer Credit expires? Stay tuned.

Here is the empirical data from Realtor.org.

National Re Sales 4_10

No comments: