Tuesday, July 13, 2010

2nd Quarter Hoboken Market Analysis is In!!!

Volume has been brisk with 271 condo units sold in Hoboken in Q2 + 24 1-4families, $160MM in dollar volume up from $129MM from 1st quarter (condos only). Again, some of this is seasonal as we expect the momentum to build in Q1 to close in Q2. After Memorial Day things slow as people go away on the weekends and take vacation. Again, the duration is the story here. We are seeing a positive change in the time it takes a new listing to go into contract. 87 to 74 average days from listing to contract or a 15% reduction. 

2nd Quarter prices per square foot have declined in the studio, 1 and 2 bedrooms. We have seen nice pick up in the 3+ bedroom condo market with an overall gain of 8% in the price per square foot.

Please remember that these are overall Hoboken averages.  We have been seeing about 550 units on the market over all on any given day in the quarter, yet 170- 200 of them are in the SW which means that that area of town is moving more slowly and is struggling more to maintain the price per square foot.  You can see that in my weekly statistics by quadrant  that the average price per square foot for 1, 2 and 3+ bedrooms for the SW for the quarter were  $507, $440 and $425, respectively v. the other parts of town.  Of the 271 sold in Q2, 71 were in the NE, 62 in the NW, 47 in the SE and 108 in the SW. 

What is one man's folly is another man's gain.  There are great deals in the SW.

The SW pump has been purchased and the Hudson County Sewage Authority has broken ground.  It's not a lengthy or complicated project and is expected to be operational by the end of the year.  This pump will be a triumph for this area clearing one of the major issues with the area.  It is not close to the PATH which obviously will never change but the flooding has been a consistent complaint about the area.  The largest low income housing project is also located in the SW.  It generally trades at the lowest price per square foot at every amenity and finish level in town including in comparison to the North West which is obviously even farther away from the PATH but does not have the same flooding issues.  The NW is home to some smaller low income housing projects, some of which are designated for seniors.  The median duration (time from listing to contract for the SW was 51 v 42 days for the NE and 40 for the NW.  The SE  also has a median duration of 51 days.  That's a 25% difference in duration between the SW & SE v. the NE & NW.

The SW also has the benefit of the under advertised city bus loop formally known as the Cross Town Bus for a $1

Median duration  by quadrant shows that the SE and the SW take about 25% longer to go to contract.  Looking at the median normalizes for poorly priced units, units that were sold in pre-construciton that would naturally take longer to go to contract and general unusual properties, i.e.,  white elephants/outliers.  That is, the median duration is a good litmus for how well a quadrant of town is doing.  

The average which does not scrub out the outliers shows a skewed story.  Stick with the median.  If you are confused about the difference because the last time you had to think about this was high school - call me and I will be happy to explain.  In the north east, there were several pre-construction sales such as 1425 Garden that were "on the market" for over 250 days.  There was more than one unit like this and it's skews the average. 
Stay tuned for tomorrow, when I publish the result for 1-4 family unit sales for second quarter. 

Information Provided by Donna Antonucci
Prudential Castle Point Realty


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