Monday, July 30, 2012

Price Per Square Foot by Bedroom from Q1 2006 to Q2 2012

Click to enlarge

This is the chart that everyone likes.  It shows the price per square foot by neighborhood for Hoboken overall. Click on the graph for a larger view.

Notice how prices for studios, one, 2 and 3 bedroom condos are all going up since Q4 2011.  The great thing about this graph is it puts the weekly and monthly observations into a broader view.  We now have 2 quarters of increasing prices.  

I review July and August separately as a quarter because I believe the Summer months behave differently ie they are slower on both sides because people want to get away on the weekends.  Right after Labor Day I will have the next cut of analysis.  

Will the trend continue??
Notice that the price per square foot for 3 bedrooms is trending down when you look at it from the peak in Q4 2007.   There was a noticeable uptick between Q4 2008 and Q1 2009 but that is likely attributable to low volume.  

Keep in mind, the market crashed in October 2008 so volume after that was minimal.  The vast majority of what closed directly after the crash was sales that were under binding contract before the crash.  Anyone who had an out right after the crash bailed - well overall anyway.  There was another noticeable tick up from Q1 to Q2 2010.  Many attribute this to the halo effect of the first time home buyer tax credit.  Most 3 bedrooms were beyond the price limit allowed under the program but since the program injected hope into the market with a lift in activity, it seemed to have had an impact on 3 bedrooms as well. In Q4 2010, there is a decline in price per square feet. In Q1 & Q2 2011 Prices were up. In Q3 2011 Prices were up and almost equal to Q3 2010. In Q2 2012 high growth in price per square foot is noticed which is similar to 1 Bedrooms and 2 Bedrooms. 

Notice that the one and 2 bedrooms largely follow the same downward slope as the 3 bedrooms with lesser variation over time.   There is much more volume in Hoboken in one and 2 bedrooms with 2 bedrooms roughly 2/3 larger than one bedroom sales in terms of units. Q3 2010 was lowest price sale period for 2 bedrooms. In Q1 2011 there was a little increase in prices. Q3 2011 was highest price for 2 bedroom sales. In Q2 again prices per square foot was appreciated similar to the trends of other categories.

Q3 2007 was highest price sale period for 1 bedroom sales.  After that there was a downfall in every quarter. Q2 2009 was lowest price sale quarter for 1 bedroom sales. After Q2 2009 there is a consistency in sale price. In Q1 2011 again there is a downfall in sale prices. Q1, Q2 and Q3 2011 were lowest price sale periods for 1 bedroom sales. In Q1 2012 prices per square foot went down but again appreciated in Q2 2012.
The number of studios and 4 bedroom sales in Hoboken is small in absolute terms so even one purchase with a very high or low price per square foot can swing the average.   So, I largely discount this as an indicator.
Provided by Donna Antonucci
Prudential Castle Point Realty